GBP>EUR – 1.1575
GBP>USD – 1.3089
EUR>USD – 1.1306
GBP>CAD – 1.7519
GBP>AUD – 1.8313
GBP>SEK – 12.113
GBP>AED – 4.8068
GBP>ZAR – 18.360
- GBP UK employment data in focus
- AUD RBA minutes could pressure Aussie
- Germany ZEW Survey rebounds in Apr, a big beat
- UK Wages Rose by 3.5% (YoY) Feb, meets estimates
The Pound has been trading mixed and what could be best described as neutrally on net. The extension of the Brexit process, with its October-31 deadline, has taken Brexit off the “of-immediate-concern” list with the UK have for now avoided a disorderly no-deal exit from the EU. The extra time will buy time for the public mood to have an impact on proceedings. Although the country remains divided on Brexit, a movement calling for another referendum on EU membership appears to be gaining ground. The nearer term focus will be on efforts by the government and Labour to find a comprise around the existing Withdrawal Agreement, which Labour wants to be attached with a commitment for the UK to remain in the EU customs union in the post-Brexit future. Prime Minister May has so far been disinclined to pay the price of splitting her Tory party by acquiescing to Labour’s demand. As things stand, all options remain open, from a no-deal scenario to a soft version of Brexit, to a new referendum or a general election. We continue to see a no-deal Brexit scenario as being no more than a low-risk possibility.
The main currencies have continued to see little directional bias for the most part, which has been seen against the backdrop of buoyant global stock markets. The narrow trade-weighted USD index is near flat on the day so far, at 96.92, continuing consolidation of declines seen last week. In equity markets, while the main U.S. indices turned lower yesterday, the S&P 500 remains within 1% of record highs, while India’s NSE index rallied to a record high today. Chinese indices have also rallied strongly, with the CSI 300 showing a 2.2% gain in late PM trading, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed with a comparatively modest 0.2% gain. Despite this dynamic, USD-JPY has continued to ply a narrow range around the 112.0 level, consolidating gains seen on Friday from levels around 111.00. EUR-USD has continued to narrowly orbit the 1.1300 level, consolidating recent gains from the six-week low at 1.1183 that was seen on April 2. Elsewhere, the Australian Dollar took a knock following the release of the RBA minutes to the early April RBA meeting, which showed that rate cuts had been discussed. AUD-USD printed a two-session low of 0.7139. The Canadian Dollar also came under pressure, which lifted USD-CAD to an 11-day high at 1.3396. This move was concomitant with a further weakening in oil prices, which have ebbed to one-week lows.
Source: XE Market Analysis Europe: Apr 16, 2019
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