Today’s Briefing

Today’s Rates

GBP>EUR – 1.1535

GBP>USD – 1.3056

EUR>USD – 1.1318

GBP>CAD – 1.7379

GBP>AUD – 1.8126

GBP>SEK – 12.044

GBP>AED – 4.7947

GBP>ZAR – 18.200

Today’s Calendar

·         CNY Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q1)

·         CNY Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q1)

·         GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Mar)

·         CAD BoC Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (Mar)


Today’s Highlights

  • Germany Cabinet approves 2019 debt level of 58.75% of GDP
  • Markets Inflation data in focus today
  • China Firm economic data
  • Oil Prices head northwards?



Sterling has remained under some pressure, having edged out a fresh one-month low against the Euro. While there has been some reprieve of Brexit-related angst brought by the delay in the process, the attention in market narratives has been turning the deleterious economic impact the associated uncertainty has been inflicting on the UK economy. In the mix is diminished expectations for the UK government and the Labour party, the principal opposition, coming together on Brexit following a Guardian report yesterday. Yesterday’s robust employment data was backwards-looking, with more timely March PMI surveys having already highlighted a reduction in employment in the UK’s dominant service sector, suggesting there has been a deterioration in employment conditions that are not yet being reflecting by official data. Recent range lows in Cable are contained within 1.2960 and 1.2987, which mark out a reference support zone.


The Dollar majors have continued without much directional bias, though the Australian and Canadian Dollars posted moderate gains while the Kiwi buck came under pressure following sub-forecast CPI data out of New Zealand. NZD-USD printed a three-month low at 0.6667 before recouping back above 0.6700, rising on the coattails of gains in the Aussie dollar following better than expected data out of China, which provided fresh fuel to risk-on sentiment in global markets. Both the Aussie and Kiwi currencies are seen by many as liquid China proxies. AUD-USD posted a two-month high at 0.7205. Chinese data were headlined by Q1 GDP growth, which came in at 6.4% y/y, better than expected and unchanged from Q4, while March industrial production surged 8.5% y/y and March retail sales by 8.7% y/y. EUR-USD, meanwhile, flipped back above 1.1300 in the latest orbiting phase of the 1.1300 level. USD-JPY also remained near the 112.0 level, consolidating the near 1 big figure rally that was seen on Friday, which had been the product of pronounced yen underperformance amid M&A-related flow and a strong risk-on sentiment in global markets, the latter of which was stoked by much better than expected trade data out of China.

Source: XE Market Analysis Europe: Apr 17, 2019

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