GBP sentiment weakens as fresh UK data disappoints, while mixed US labour figures add uncertainty to FX markets. Dive into today’s key takeaways and what they mean for your upcoming currency decisions 🔽💱
Key Insights:
- Recent data releases have further weighed on sentiment toward the pound
- U.S. employment figures delivered a mixed picture.
Market Recap:
The US dollar edged lower after the postponed September labour report revealed a mixed picture: unemployment unexpectedly rose to 4.4% while non-farm payrolls increased by 119,000. Although the figures nudged up expectations for a possible December rate cut—from 35% to around 45%—the data does not provide the Federal Reserve with a strong enough case to shift policy, suggesting any further USD softness may be limited.
Sterling extended its gains even as BRC data pointed to the steepest decline in consumer confidence since April. The upward move in GBP appears to be driven more by investors adjusting positions ahead of next week’s Budget than by domestic data.
Today's Market Watch:
A run of disappointing UK data this morning has weighed further on sterling. Retail sales missed expectations, government borrowing climbed to £17.4bn, and GfK confidence slipped to –19—an unwelcome trio that reinforces the soft sentiment around GBP. In contrast, the yen opened firmer after Japan’s finance minister signalled that FX intervention remains on the table.
Attention now turns to today’s PMI releases, which will offer a clearer read on how major economies performed in November. Eurozone PMIs have generally surprised to the upside this year, helping underpin the euro’s resilience. The UK, however, has seen more muted momentum, and with sterling already under pressure ahead of the Budget, another weak print could deepen the currency’s struggles.
US PMI readings have stayed broadly steady overall—after early-year softness, they have gradually recovered into year-end, suggesting a relatively stable economic backdrop.
21st November 2025
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