Markets are on alert as the US Jobs Report takes centre stage. With Non-Farm Payrolls, wage growth and unemployment data due, volatility in USD pairs could accelerate quickly. Expectations for a softer print are keeping the dollar subdued but any surprise could reset Fed rate expectations in an instant.
Key Highlight
- Markets positioned cautiously ahead of potentially weak job numbers
- The pound’s recent recovery appears to be running out of steam
Market Recap
The US dollar extended its pullback for a third consecutive session after weaker-than-expected December retail sales data dented confidence in US economic momentum. The USD Spot Index edged lower on the day and has now lost over 1% across the past three sessions.
US Treasury yields also declined across the curve, reflecting softer growth expectations and a shift in rate outlook.
USD/JPY dropped sharply, falling close to 1% to the mid-154 level and extending losses over the past two days. The move followed confirmation from Japan’s Finance Minister that the government will not prolong the temporary food sales tax cut — a signal that fiscal policy support may not be expanded.
Meanwhile, sterling’s recent political-driven rebound lost momentum as markets pause ahead of upcoming UK GDP data later this week.
Market Overview:
Attention remains firmly on the US dollar as markets position ahead of Wednesday’s key payrolls release. Today’s ADP employment figures will be closely watched for clues on labour market momentum, while December retail sales are also due. Expectations point to modest growth, but any downside surprise in consumer spending would strengthen concerns that US economic activity is losing pace.
In the UK, recent displays of cabinet unity have helped steady sentiment and reduce immediate political uncertainty, offering the pound some short-term support. That said, GBP remains sensitive to ongoing political developments, with upcoming UK GDP data later this week likely to be a key driver.
What this means for markets:
Near-term FX moves are likely to be driven by US data outcomes, particularly employment and consumer demand, while sterling’s outlook will depend on whether improved political stability is reinforced by stronger domestic growth figures.
10th February 2026
How We Can Help...
Our team are here to help you get more from your money when making international payments. We will work with you to understand your payment needs and offer guidance on the best options available to you.
Get in Touch!
P: 07441 910 897
E: FX-Admin@frank-exchange.com
This document has been prepared solely for information and is not intended as an Inducement concerning the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. By its nature market analysis represents the personal view of the author and no warranty can be, or is, offered as to the accuracy of any such analysis, or that predictions provided in any such analysis will prove to be correct. Should you rely on any analysis, information, or report provided as part of the Service it does so entirely at its own risk, and Frank eXchange Limited accepts no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage you may suffer as a result. Information and opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation is made as to their accuracy. No copy of this document can be taken without prior written permission.
Contact Us
Office
Unit F1, Ransom Hall, Ransom Wood Business Park, Southwell Road West,
Mansfield, NG21 0HJ.
Legals:
Payment and e-money services (Non MIFID related products) are provided by The Currency Cloud Limited. Registered with the Dutch Chamber of Commerce in the Netherlands under number 72186178. Registered office Mr. Treublaan 7, 1097 DP, Amsterdam, Netherlands. CurrencyCloud B.V. is licensed and regulated by De Nederlandsche Bank as an Electronic Money Institution (Relation Number: R142701)
For United States, Payment services for Frank Exchange Limited (Non MIFID related products) are provided by Visa Global Services Inc. (VGSI), a licensed money transmitter (NMLS ID 181032) in the states listed here.VGSI is licensed as a money transmitter by the New York Department of Financial Services. Mailing address: 900 Metro Center Blvd, Mailstop 1Z, Foster City, CA 94404. VGSI is also a registered Money Services Business (“MSB”) with FinCEN and a registered Foreign MSB with FINTRAC. For live customer support contact VGSI at (888) 733-0041.
Frank eXchange’s Payment and Foreign Currency Exchange Services are also provided by Ebury Partners UK Limited.
Ebury Partners UK Limited (EPUK) is an Authorised Electronic Money Institution (Financial Services Register No. 900797) and is licensed to provide payment services including FX spots and FX Forwards for the commercial purpose of the facilitation of payments for identifiable goods or services and direct investments. Ebury Partners UK Limited is registered with the Information Commissioner's Office, with registration number: ZA345828.
Anti-Bullying and Harassment Policy
At Frank eXchange Limited, we are committed to providing a safe and respectful environment for both our customers and staff. We do not tolerate any form of bullying, harassment, or abusive behaviour towards our employees.
Any communication that is deemed offensive, threatening, or disrespectful may result in the termination of services. We expect all interactions to be conducted with professionalism and courtesy to ensure a positive experience for everyone involved.
Thank you for your understanding and cooperation.