Thursday 9th April
Wednesday’s risk rally has evaporated as optimism over the US-Iran ceasefire fades, leaving the USD and oil prices to rebound after Tehran claimed truce violations and Israel intensified strikes in Lebanon.
While the initial news sent the USD down 0.8% and WTI crude plunging 17%—driving massive single-day surges in GBPUSD (+1.4%) and EURUSD (+1.04%)—those gains have largely reversed. The Canadian Dollar remains the primary G10 laggard due to its lost oil premium, while GBPEUR softened as ECB rate hike expectations proved more resilient than those for the BoE. With crude now recovering toward $97, the market remains on edge, highlighting the extreme fragility of the Islamabad Accord.
Key Takeaways
US Data: The Inflation "Litmus Test"
All eyes are on the Core PCE release at 7:30 AM ET. This is the Fed's preferred metric and will likely dictate whether the USD’s overnight recovery turns into a full-scale breakout.
European Headwinds
While the Euro saw a brief relief spike on the ceasefire news, its fundamentals remain shaky.
Geopolitical Risk: The "Broken" Truce
The "Islamabad Accord" is currently a ceasefire in name only
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