Morning Market Update: Key Themes to Watch

• Recession Fears Weigh on Markets – Global stocks and the US dollar took a hit as investors grow concerned about a potential US economic slowdown. Could this signal more volatility ahead?

• Euro Holds Strong Despite Tariffs – Even with 20% tariffs in place, the euro managed to gain ground yesterday. Is this resilience a short-term reaction or a sign of underlying strength?

• US Jobs Report in Focus – Markets will be watching closely when employment data is released at 13:30 BST. Will the numbers shift expectations for interest rate decisions?

How do you see these trends shaping the markets in the days ahead?

Market News

Trump’s recent tariff announcements have sparked fears of a US recession, with analysts now warning that the high average tariff rate of 23% could hurt the US economy more than its trading partners. In response, stock markets took a sharp dive—US stocks fell nearly 5%, with the S&P 500 hitting its lowest level since last August, and global markets followed suit. The dollar also dropped over 2% as investors moved away from US assets. Despite this, Trump has downplayed market reactions, saying tariffs will only be lowered if other countries make major concessions.

Meanwhile, European markets also fell after Trump imposed 20% tariffs on the EU, but the selloff was more controlled. Optimism remains that European governments will introduce economic support measures, and President Macron has urged businesses to shift investments away from the US. The euro actually strengthened, gaining nearly 2% against the dollar and over 1% against the pound, as speculative traders bet on European resilience.

Now, attention turns to today’s US jobs report, which could give clues about whether the economy is already slowing. Experts predict job growth of around 125,000—slightly below expectations—but warn that if tariffs remain, the US could slip into recession by late 2025, with unemployment rising to 4.6%.

What key events to watch today

• 13:30 – US: Nonfarm payrolls, chg., k

• 13:30 – US: Unemployment rate, %

3rd April 2025

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