Key Headlines:

• USD: All eyes on the FOMC as the interest rate decision looms.
• EUR: Final CPI data set for release, providing insight into inflation trends.
• GBP: Market focus shifts to tomorrow’s Bank of England rate decision.

Recap

Yesterday’s peace talks between Trump and Putin produced conflicting narratives—Trump suggested progress toward peace, while Putin maintained that his demands remain unmet. However, both sides have agreed to a temporary ceasefire on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, with discussions set to resume on Sunday. Meanwhile, the White House reaffirmed its commitment to implementing reciprocal tariffs from April 2nd, fuelling concerns of an ongoing trade war. This uncertainty led to further declines in the US dollar and stocks. Attention now turns to the upcoming interest rate decision, where policymakers must balance recession risks against consumer expectations of rising prices and inflation.

Today’s Rates

Today's Interbank Rates at 10:10 am against GBP movement.

GBP>EUR – 1.1899

GBP>USD – 1.2966

EUR>GBP – 0.8402

EUR>USD – 1.0896

GBP>CAD – 1.8581

GBP>AUD – 2.0493

GBP>SEK – 13.109

GBP>AED – 4.7619

GBP>HKD – 10.076

GBP>ZAR – 23.628

GBP>CHF – 1.1400

GBP>PLN – 4.9933

Today’s Key Takeaways

• Fed Decision in Focus: Markets await the Federal Reserve’s announcement, with rates expected to remain unchanged and only two cuts priced in for the year. A downward revision of growth forecasts could extend USD weakness.
• EUR Retreats: After a strong run, the euro has lost some ground as Putin rejects a proposed 30-day ceasefire, pushing investors toward safe-haven assets like gold.
• Turkish Lira Slumps: The currency has dropped 5% following the arrest of President Erdogan’s main rival, Imamoglu, just days before his expected nomination. Concerns are spilling into other Central European currencies, pressuring HUF and PLN.

19^th March 2025

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