Key Headline:

·       U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are set to meet, with Saudi Arabia as a potential location.

·       The British pound (GBP) is trading near a two-month high ahead of crucial economic data releases.

Recap

USD Weakness and Retail Sales Decline:

• The week ended with more USD selling pressure.
• U.S. retail sales for January unexpectedly fell by 0.8% Year on Year.
• Markets adjusted interest rate expectations, aligning with pre-Wednesday CPI data.
• A second-rate cut is now expected in September, three months earlier than initially forecast, with a 60% probability.

GBPUSD and EURUSD Gains:

• Both GBPUSD and EURUSD extended their gains for the second consecutive week.

 Today’s Rates

Today's Interbank Rates at 10:45 am against GBP movement.

GBP>EUR – 1.2025

GBP>USD – 1.2593

EUR>GBP – 0.8315

EUR>USD – 1.0473

GBP>CAD – 1.7864

GBP>AUD – 1.9790

GBP>SEK – 13.484

GBP>CHF – 1.1354

GBP>PLN – 5.0017

GBP>AED – 4.6254

GBP>HKD – 9.7983

GBP>ZAR – 23.200

Today’s Key Takeaways

UK Data in Focus:

·       Key releases: Job numbers (Tuesday), CPI (Wednesday), Retail Sales (Friday).

·       Job numbers pose the biggest risk to GBP, based on recent BoE comments.

·       CPI is expected to rise, supporting GBP, but markets have already reduced expected BoE rate cuts, meaning the impact could be priced in.

·       Retail sales may disappoint if last quarter's weak household spending continues into January.

US Market Movers:

·       FOMC minutes (Wednesday) are the key data release.

·       Ongoing Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks may keep USD soft due to increased risk appetite.

·       US and Russian officials set to meet in Saudi Arabia this week.

EUR Risks:

·       German elections this weekend could pressure the euro if coalition talks are delayed.

17th February 2025

This document has been prepared solely for information and is not intended as an Inducement concerning the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. By its nature market analysis represents the personal view of the author and no warranty can be, or is, offered as to the accuracy of any such analysis, or that predictions provided in any such analysis will prove to be correct. Should you rely on any analysis, information, or report provided as part of the Service it does so entirely at its own risk, and Frank eXchange Limited accepts no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage you may suffer as a result. Information and opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be dependable, but no representation is made as to their accuracy. No copy of this document can be taken without prior written permission.