Thrusday 13th February

John Hall • February 13, 2025

TODAY’s RATES & MARKET NEWS

Ukraine ceasefire?


Key Headline:

EUR Strengthens as Trump Holds 'Productive' Talks with Putin on Ukraine

UK GDP Grows, Signalling Economic Resilience


Recap

 US CPI beats expectations for January, pushing treasury yields higher and leading markets to price in just one Fed rate cut for the year.

 USD initially rallied but later retraced, raising questions about whether markets have exhausted fresh reasons to buy and hold the dollar.

 Trump remains in focus after revealing he spoke with Putin about the dollar, energy, and Ukraine—fuelling speculation about a potential ceasefire.

 Risk sentiment improved in the afternoon following Trump’s comments


Today’s Rates

Today's Interbank Rates at 10:20 am against GBP movement.

GBP>EUR – 1.1991

GBP>USD – 1.2503

EUR>GBP – 0.8338

EUR>USD – 1.0424

GBP>CAD – 1.7861

GBP>AUD – 1.9938

GBP>SEK – 13.544

GBP>CHF – 1.1337

GBP>PLN – 4.9959

GBP>AED – 4.5906

GBP>HKD – 9.7361

GBP>ZAR – 23.100

 

Today’s Key Takeaways

UK GDP surprised to the upside, with December growth at 0.4% (vs. 0.1% expected), bringing Q4 GDP to 0.1% (vs. -0.1% expected).

GBP reaction was muted, as growth was driven by services, while consumption and business investment fell sharply, raising concerns about underlying fundamentals.

USD FX rates consolidating, with markets seemingly seeking better entry points amid trade tariff discussions and the Fed’s cautious stance on rate cuts.

Markets pausing on tariff headlines, while Russia/Ukraine ceasefire prospects support EUR gains and improved risk sentiment may pressure USD lower.


13th February 2025


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