Markets anticipate that the U.S. dollar will only strengthen if Republicans achieve a full "red sweep" in the election.
Yesterday afternoon, markets shifted to a risk-off stance, leading to a drop in the USD as enthusiasm for the "Trump trade" faded before the presidential election. The GBP fell along with the decline in risk sentiment, while the JPY and CHF emerged as the top performers among G10 currencies.
Today's Interbank Rates at 09:58 am against GBP movement.
GBP>EUR – 1.1919
GBP>USD – 1.2982
EUR>GBP – 0.8390
EUR>USD – 1.0892
GBP>CAD – 1.8022
GBP>AUD – 1.9617
GBP>SEK – 13.877
GBP>AED – 4.7678
GBP>HKD – 10.091
GBP>ZAR – 22.662
GBP>CHF – 1.1191
GBP>PLN – 5.1966
As election day approaches, markets remain cautious, with predictions still uncertain. Polls in key swing states close around 2-3 AM GMT, potentially prompting market reactions.
Analysts believe a Republican "clean sweep" is needed for the USD to strengthen, as a Republican win is expected to lead to more fiscal expansion, boosting stimulus and inflation. This could lead markets to lower their expectations for further Federal Reserve rate cuts.
In any other election outcome, the USD could see significant selling, with investors taking profits after its strong October performance. Meanwhile, the upcoming ISM Services data from the U.S. is expected to have minimal market impact.
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